Risk Assessment

In accordance with FEMA requirements, risk assessment planning process identifies the natural hazards affecting the City and assesses the vulnerability from the identified hazards.  Results from this phase in the planning process will form the foundation for the subsequent mitigation actions for reducing risk and potential losses in the City.

Hazard Identification

The risk assessment begins with the identification of hazards which could potentially affect the City.  During the plan update process we re-establish information about prevalent natural hazards and prepare a preliminary list of hazards based upon the City’s HMP, stakeholder input, and other documentation.  The preliminary hazard list of for HMP update includes:

  • Earthquake
  • Flooding
  • Wildfire
  • Drought
  • Dam Failure
  • Extreme Heat
  • Climate Change
  • Terrorism

Large regional incidents have affected the City; most recently the Blue Cut Fire.

The fire, fueled by winds that reached 20-30 mph, quickly spread, burning more than 36,274 acres in total.  Flames destroyed 105 homes and 216 minor structures. Mandatory evacuations were ordered affecting 82,000 residents across several neighborhoods. Two firefighters were injured and briefly hospitalized for minor injuries after becoming trapped while protecting homes in Swarthout Canyon. The fire burned for eight days before full containment was reached.

Hazard Profiling

The HMP Planning Committee worked with the City departments and other jurisdictions to re-establish profiles for the updated Hazard Mitigation Plan.  Hazard profiles provide a standardized method to explain each hazard in terms of:

  • Definition
  • Regulations / Policies
  • Location/Extent
  • Magnitude/Severity
  • Probability of Future Occurrences

During the hazard profiling process we review and assess existing plans, studies, other technical reports, and create hazard maps with newly acquired data and share them with stakeholders and the public to determine if the hazards identified are still valid.  The project management team will update the hazard profiles to reflect any new hazard events since the 2012 HMP and provide information in a FEMA preferred / required hazard profile format.

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